Jordan Bardella: So close to becoming French president — and yet so far

PARIS — Jordan Bardella might have a shot at becoming the next president of France, but his path to get there isn’t as straightforward as it seems.

With Marine Le Pen’s presidential aspirations having been derailed by an embezzlement conviction, Bardella has emerged this week as the most likely candidate of France’s largest far-right party for the 2027 presidential election.

Slick, photogenic, ambitious and just 29 years old, Bardella has long been seen as the heir-apparent in the National Rally when Le Pen, 56, steps away.

But what on its surface appears to be a once-in-a lifetime lucky break is, on deeper inspection, little more than a poisoned chalice.

For starters, Le Pen has conspicuously declined to endorse a possible Bardella candidacy, instead vowing to fight for the opportunity to run herself after all. Tuesday’s decision by an appeals court to rule on the case by summer 2026 gives her a sliver of hope.

It’s made more difficult for her protégé that Le Pen is almost universally worshipped within her party. None of her allies appear ready to tell her that endorsing Bardella now, rather than waiting for the courts to rule on her case, is the safest way to protect her movement.

“For Bardella, the way Marine Le Pen is reacting is not good news,” said a former National Rally official who has kept links with the party.

The official said that if Le Pen waited until the “bitter end” and is still barred from running, it will be too late for Bardella to build a successful campaign.

“The presidential campaign will be in full swing when [Bardella] joins the race,” the official said.

But Bardella has a dilemma. While being thrust into the 2027 race without enough time to mount a proper campaign wouldn’t be ideal, if he tries to push Le Pen aside now — an extremely unlikely scenario at this stage — he risks creating a schism within his party when it has never looked stronger.

The man for the moment?

For many, these concerns are surfacing only now. Bardella has long appeared to be the man the National Rally needed as a Le Pen successor.

His rags-to-riches story of growing up in the impoverished suburbs north of Paris is tailor-made for politics. He has proven himself a savvy communicator with younger generations and has even become a TikTok phenomenon. He is unencumbered by family ties to party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen ― Marine’s father ― who was repeatedly convicted of hate speech and antisemitism.

He has also proved his worth on the campaign trail, taking the National Rally to new heights during the European election and in the French parliamentary vote last year.

The problem is that Le Pen has made it clear she has no intention of stepping aside, coming out with guns blazing following the Monday verdict. She called the court’s decision a “nuclear bomb” detonated by a corrupt system and meant to stop her march to the Elysée.

Publicly she has refused to contemplate handing the baton to Bardella, whom she described as “a formidable asset” she hoped the National Rally wouldn’t have to use.

Rivals from other parties, such as Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin and far-right firebrand Eric Zemmour, may be better placed to ride the conservative wave sweeping France and Europe.

The 2027 presidential campaign could end up being little more than a learning experience for Bardella. If he flops hard, he might be remembered like a child star whose career flames out early.

“He would be in a better position as the second-in-command, by Le Pen’s side, learning how to run a presidential campaign, rather than as the frontman,” said Bruno Jeanbart, a pollster at OpinionWay. “It would have been better to be anointed later by [National Rally] voters, than earlier by the courts.”